Energy transition in the construction sector - are there enough qualified workers with the appropriate skills to meet requirements?

The present article discusses whether and the extent to which enough qualified building workers with sufficient skills are available for the energy transition in the construction sector. As part of its Intelligent Energy Europe (IEE) Programme, the European Union (EU) launched the "BuildUp Skills" Initiative in 2011 with the aim of identifying how many construction workers have which qualifications and which steps may be needed to increase the number of such workers and their skill levels in line with requirements. The paper presents the results of the project and a proposed catalogue of measures to avoid possible shortages of skilled workers.

In order to be able to estimate the requirement for skilled workers in the construction occupations, we first need to take into account that, aside from the "20-20-20" objectives, investment will take place in the construction industry in the future. As part of the German BuildUpSkills Project² (cf. WEISS/REHBOLD 2012) the first thing to be calculated, therefore, was the extent to which additional investments are necessary in order to achieve the energy policy objectives. Comparison of a reference scenario, which describes previous development without the identified investments (cf. HELMRICH/MAIER2012), with an energy policy alternative scenario, in which the additional investments are taken into account, permits conclusions regarding the volume and structure of labour and skilled worker requirements.

Based on the structure of inventory of buildings in Germany and an expert evaluation of the remedial concepts required in technological terms (cf. HEINECKE/MAREK/WELZBACHER2012, pp.67ff.), it became clear that the investment in construction of residential and non-residential buildings each needs to be increased by around €23.6 billion per year from 2014 to 2020 if the objective is to be achieved. The assumption here is that 21 percent of these additional measures will be financed by private households and that eleven percent and 68 percent respectively will be funded by the public purse and private enterprises such as housing developers and private landlords (cf. HELMRICH et al. 2012b).

The reference scenario is based on the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) qualifications and occupational field projections (QuBe Project) (cf. HELMRICH et al.2012a). This involves using jointly defined occupational fields and data generations for future projections of past developments, insofar as empirical evidence is in place. If no trends are discernible in certain areas, the status quo is maintained as a future constant. As described above, the necessary construction investments in the energy policy alternative scenario are running at an additional €23.6 billion per year.This expansion of building investments produces a rise in gross domestic product of around one percent³. The causes of this are the direct effects of the investments themselves⁴ and the positive impacts for other branches which supply goods and services for the construction industry(combined input). Consequently, around 200,000 additional workers will be required in the year 2020 compared to the reference scenario. This also affects occupations in the finishing and input trades and thus occupations that are primarily located in other branches (e.g. wood processing). The construction sector itself will benefit from a demand for approximately 170,000 workers. If only construction occupations relevant to the renovation of buildings to meet energy requirements are taken into account, the number of additional new workers needed in the year 2020 will be somewhat lower at 90,000 people.

This additional demand for labour (calculated on the basis of the IAB-INFORGE Model cf. HUMMEL/THEIN/ZIKA 2010) must now be covered by an equivalent supply of workers/skilled workers (persons in active employment). The existing supply of workers, new entrants from the education and training system, migration of unskilled workers and workers from other occupational fields and the exodus of qualified skilled workers all need to be taken into consideration in this regard (cf. MAIER/THOBE 2012).It is shown that, compared to the year 2010, both demand and supply in the reference scenario will fall by 2020 (cf. Figure 1). One of the causes of this is demographic change, which will lead to lower demand for new buildings and on the other side also a decline in the working age population of around nine percent (according to the BIBB-FIT Model cf. KALINOWSKI/QUINKE 2010). This would still amount to an oversupply (in arithmetical terms) of approximately 140,000 workers in the occupations relevant to building renovation in 2020, representing about six percent of the expected 2.34 million workers in active employment by this time.

If we now extend this representation to include the alternative scenario, we can identify that the additional demand for around 90,000 workers in 2020 will reduce the oversupply in the working age population to just fewer than 50,000 people. Because this merely represents an arithmetic value at national level, the occurrence of regional and sectoral bottlenecks in relevant construction occupations before the end of the projection period are possible insofar as the separately projected supply of workers does not increase.

Figure 2 depicts occupational fields which are relevant to occupations in construction and the finishing trades. Whereas the purely arithmetical projection of approximately 74,000 persons of working age in the occupational field of "construction occupations, wood and plastics manufacture and processing" is likely to represent an oversupply of potential workers in the year 2020, the "electrical occupations" will experience shortages from 2014 even if the alternative scenario is not taken into account.Although a slight oversupply can still be observed in the occupational field of "metal construction, plant construction, sheet metal construction, installation, fitters", it will significantly decrease towards the end of the projection period once the energy policy alternative scenario is taken into account, meaning that it will become increasingly difficult to cover the expected demand for workers.

 

Alongside the quantitative issue of supply and demand, a further object of investigation is whether qualified workers in the construction sector have the appropriate skills for the renovation of buildings in accordance with energy requirements. Because vocational education and training in Germany is structured in a demand oriented manner and impetuses for adaptation of regulatory instruments normally emerge from trade and industry itself, it is possible to propound the thesis that skills meet the requirements of the labour market in principle (cf. GRUNWALD 2012). For this reason, a special VET strategy for the achievement of the "20-20-20" objectives is not (yet) necessary, at least for the time being. This assessment also applies to the areas of renovation of buildings in accordance with energy requirements and of renewable energies due to the existence of a broad range of relevant training occupations which can always be (and are) adapted to current technical and work organisation changes if necessary from the point of view of the trade and industry associations affected. Because training regulations also mostly stipulate only minimum standards, more demanding training to pick up on innovative developments in the field of "energy" is possible at any time. If these opportunities are not sufficient and the intention is (initially) to exclude the creation of new relevant training occupations, occupationally related continuing training options could be provided. Because the German continuing training system is structured in a flexible and demand oriented way, possible continuing training needs can usually be covered in a timely and practically aligned manner. Innovations, such as the implementation of findings from energy research in the field of construction, are therefore usually imparted by manufacturers within the scope of so-called user training courses. If such innovations later meet with broader demand, the skills needs are satisfied by continuing training providers who act independently of the manufacturers. This is also an area in which market demand governs the relevant supply. Advanced training regulations introduced under public law by the competent bodies do not become a possibility until such continuing training courses organised by the private sector (for which a certificate of attendance or certificate is usually awarded) receive (ever) broader acceptance on the labour market. The chambers are rapidly able to meet any regional requirements by issuing their own examination regulations pursuant to § 54 of the Vocational Training Act (BBiG) or § 42a of the Crafts and Trades Regulation Code (HwO). If, on the other hand, demand should turn out to be supra-regional and require a nationally standardised structure, the Federal Ministry responsible will enact advanced training regulations pursuant to § 53 BBiG or § 42 HwO.

Within the framework of the Build Up Skills Project, it was possible to confirm that, within the field of renovation of buildings in accordance with energy needs, training occupations in Germany are structured in a demand oriented manner and that comprehensive continuing and advanced training is available to workers in the construction industry, so that it is indeed possible to react quickly to new requirements in the energy sector (cf. National Training Road Map 2013, p. 15). Within the scope of a so-called gap analysis, the occupational profiles of 41 relevant initial training occupations and 37 advanced training occupations in the main construction sector and finishing trades were investigated with regard to possible deficits in training contents. The criterion here was the three technological areas of the shell of a building (main works, roof, facade, windows and doors), building infrastructure (wall and floor coverings, electrical engineering, heating engineering, air conditioning/refrigeration technology) and energy supply (e.g. geothermics, biomass, solar energy, photo voltaic energy etc.) (cf. RASCH/REHBOLD/ROTTHEGE 2012). The initial and advanced training regulations for the selected occupations were then examined for completeness on the basis of the process stages in the value added chain, i.e. from planning to completion and handover and from expansion to maintenance and disposal. This extensive analysis confirmed the thesis that the necessary skill sets for workers in the construction sector in Germany are broadly anchored both in training regulations and master craftsman training regulations and largely cover the relevant technologies and processes.

Within the framework of the Build Up Skills Project, it was possible to confirm that, within the field of renovation of buildings in accordance with energy needs, training occupations in Germany are structured in a demand oriented manner and that comprehensive continuing and advanced training is available to workers in the construction industry, so that it is indeed possible to react quickly to new requirements in the energy sector (cf. National Training Road Map 2013, p. 15). Within the scope of a so-called gap analysis, the occupational profiles of 41 relevant initial training occupations and 37 advanced training occupations in the main construction sector and finishing trades were investigated with regard to possible deficits in training contents. The criterion here was the three technological areas of the shell of a building (main works, roof, facade, windows and doors), building infrastructure (wall and floor coverings, electrical engineering, heating engineering, air conditioning/refrigeration technology) and energy supply (e.g. geothermics, biomass, solar energy, photo voltaic energy etc.) (cf. RASCH/REHBOLD/ROTTHEGE 2012). The initial and advanced training regulations for the selected occupations were then examined for completeness on the basis of the process stages in the value added chain, i.e. from planning to completion and handover and from expansion to maintenance and disposal. This extensive analysis confirmed the thesis that the necessary skill sets for workers in the construction sector in Germany are broadly anchored both in training regulations and master craftsman training regulations and largely cover the relevant technologies and processes.

Despite the required increased demand, there will, in purely arithmetical terms, be no nationwide shortages of qualified skilled workers in the construction sector by 2020.Only individual regions and occupational fields may experience problems in filling positions before this time. Notwithstanding this, it is foreseeable that this shortage will significantly increase nationally after 2020 if the energy-related restructuring activities continue unabated.Because the rates of employment of domestic workers with vocational qualifications can only be increased by a limited extent (cf. HELMRICH et al.2012b), migration of foreign skilled workers will grow in significance over the coming years. For this reason, companies should make greater use of the possibilities offered by the Recognition Act for the recognition of qualifications acquired abroad.The high proportion of workers from the construction occupations who change occupations also shows that the building sector is obviously not sufficiently attractive for skilled workers. For this reason, just under 40 measures and campaigns have been proposed within the scope of the Build Up Skills Initiative that are aimed at closing the quantitative and qualitative gaps in securing and training skilled workers in the construction sector. Some examples of these are as follows (cf. the National Training Road Map 2013, pp. 20-51 for more details).

• Establishment of human resources development concepts
• Development of a continuing training advisory concept and a system for the early recognition of training needs in the field of energy-efficient construction and renewable energies
• Raising awareness of trainers for cooperation between various occupations on a construction site ("interface problem") etc.

The relevant stakeholders who have declared their support for the Build Up Skills Project in the National Platform⁵ are, therefore, now called upon to become actively involved in specific implementation in order to enable the European energy and climate goals actually to be achieved by 2020.

 

DR. JÖRG-GÜNTHER GRUNWALD,
Head of the "Industrial and Technical Occupations" Division at BIBB

PROF. DR. ROBERT HELMRICH,
Head of the "Qualifications, Occupational Integration and Employment" Division at BIBB

TOBIAS MAIER
Research associate in the "BIBBQualifications, Occupational Integration and Employment" Division at BIBB

Translation from the German original (published in BWP 6/2013): Deborah Shannon, Academic Text & Translation, Berlin