Where to recruit - or poach - from next?

Owing to the demographic trend, the Federal Statistical Office assumes a rising number of people in need of care, whose needs can only be met if a growing number of people are employed in nursing professions. Despite longer working hours and the loyalty of skilled nursing staff to their occupations, Germany's already appreciable skilled worker shortage in the nursing professions will not be alleviated before the year 2025. Against this backdrop, the article sheds light on how far the rising demand for skilled workers in the nursing field can be met by tapping into additional reserves of qualified staff.

Even today in Germany, falling unemployment rates and the rising number of reported vacancies are indicative of shortfall situations in the nursing professions ⁰¹ (cf. BA 2011, pp. 12 ff.). For this reason there may come a time when skilled staff can no longer be recruited directly from the ranks of jobseekers, and more would have to be done instead to motivate non-working people to join the workforce. Evaluations of the 2009 Microcensus reveal that around 178,000 persons ⁰² between the ages of 15 and 59 have completed at least one year of initial vocational training in the nursing professions but, for various reasons, are not currently seeking paid employment. If we can accept the assumption made by AFENTAKIS/MAIER (2010) of a workforce shortfall of around 152,000 employees ("status quo scenario") in the year 2025, it becomes clear that even the activation of a large number of these qualified-staff reserves will not be sufficient to meet the demand, given that in the year 2009 almost half of these 178,000 non-working people were already in the 45- to 59-year-old age group. To the extent that Germany's domestic skilled-workforce potential cannot be tapped (e.g. through higher workforce participation rates among fully qualified nursing staff), then encouraging the migration of individuals with the specific qualifications needed is viewed as an appropriate means of satisfying any remaining demand for skilled staff (Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales 2011). The new 'Act to Improve the Assessment and Recognition of Foreign Vocational and Professional Qualifications' ⁰³ which came into force on April 1, 2012, is designed to help with this by making it easier to obtain recognition of vocational qualifications gained outside the European Economic Area and Switzerland (i.e. qualifications from "third countries"). The question to be explored below is therefore how far nursing professions are benefiting from qualifications acquired outside Germany. ⁰⁴

 The table shows, for reporting year 2009 of the Microcensus, the occupations in which members of the German workforce gained their highest vocational qualification. It only takes account of people in employment whose main subject specialism and qualification level could be assigned to a vocational qualification in accordance with the official German classification of occupations (Klassifikation der Berufe 1992; on the method, cf. BOTT et al. 2010) and whose country of origin could be identified. A distinction is made between whether the vocational qualification was acquired in Germany or by a German-born individual or obtained before migrating to Germany (cf. also SCHANDOCK/ BREMSER 2012). Around five per cent of employed people with a vocational qualification acquired it before they arrived in Germany. It is striking that in comparison to the distribution of occupational qualifications of native Germans or of vocational qualifications acquired in Germany, the proportion of foreign vocational qualifications in the "production occupations" (32.8 % versus 28.8 %) and in the "secondary services occupations" (46.5 % versus 39.3 %) is larger for migrants from both European and non-European countries. In nursing occupations, too, the share of foreign vocational qualifications from almost all countries of origin (except Turkey) is higher than the share of German qualifications. This shows that a higher proportion of qualified nursing staff (4.1%) is found among the migrant workers who have come to Germany than among holders of a vocational qualification acquired in Germany (3.8%). Thus, around 6% of qualified nursing staff have acquired their qualifications abroad.

Table: Vocational qualifications abroad, by country of origin and major occupational field

1) The number of cases reflects the actual sample size so that the reliability of results can be assessed. The figures only count people in employment whose main field of specialisation and qualification level could be associated with a vocational qualification in accordance with the official German Classification of Occupations (KldB 1992; on the method, cf. BOTT et al. 2010) and whose country of origin could be identified. The percentage values were determined on the basis of extrapolated values.
2) Only countries of origin with a sufficiently large number of cases are considered individually.

Source: Microcensus 2009, own calculations

According to these findings the German labour market benefits from qualified migration in the nursing professions, although the total number of migrants who are qualified nursing staff, extrapolated at around 70,000 individuals, is relatively low, and no statements can be made regarding the recognition status of their occupational qualifications. In the nursing professions, particular attention is drawn to occupation-specific migration from Croatia, where qualified nursing staff account for almost one-tenth of migrants to Germany with an occupational qualification. An agreement of the Federal Employment Agency (BA) with the Croatian labour administration, which has been in force since January 1, 2005, on the recruitment of nursing staff and the recognition of initial vocational training in the professions of "Nurse" or "Paediatric nurse" (cf. Bundesagentur für Arbeit 2005) might encourage this exchange.

Evaluations of the 2009 Microcensus show that around 178,000 people between the ages of 15 and 59 living in Germany have completed at least one year of initial vocational training in the nursing professions, but do not engage in paid employment. A share of these people need to be motivated by policy measures to join the workforce in future, in order to adjust the supply of nursing staff to the growing demand. In view of the high proportion of female nursing staff (84% according to the calculations of AFENTAKIS/MAIER 2010, p. 995), one way of doing this might be, for example, to ensure the nationwide provision of childcare facilities. In addition, however, it will also be necessary to motivate young people to undertake initial vocational training in the nursing professions, while managing the continuing shortages by means of qualification-specific migration. Regulated recruitment and recognition procedures could improve the chances of qualified nursing staff finding their way to Germany. Furthermore, as of May 1, 2011, citizens of the Eastern European Member States that joined the EU in the year 2004 are now entitled to full freedom of employment, which may equally contribute to increasing the supply of skilled nursing staff on the German labour market. For example, Poland was already supplying the most foreign-trained nursing staff in 2009.

TOBIAS MAIER
Research associate in the “Qualifications, Occupational Integration and Employment” Division at BIBB

Translation from the German original (published in BWP 6/2012): Deborah Shannon, Academic Text & Translation, Berlin